My Predictions – Unicorn Edition

The day of days is upon us, so I thought I’d do a quick run-down of the var­i­ous rumors that have been bandied about. I’m also going to give my esti­ma­tion on the like­li­hood of said pre­dic­tion com­ing true.

Tablet

• A tablet will be announced: 90%
• …named:
  • iTablet: 5%
  • iSlate: 30%
  • iPad: 80% (sadly)
  • Something with­out a fuck­ing “i” in front: 2% (sadly)
• …it will have wifi: 90%
• …it will have 3G: 75%
• …AT&T exclu­sive: 60%
• …includ­ing Verizon: 40%
• …Verizon exclu­sive: 10%
• …Steve will announce a hand­ful of major con­tent part­ners: 80%
• …it will run a vari­ant of the “desk­top” OS X: 30%
• …it will run a vari­ant of the “iPhone” OS X: 70%
• …it will run a com­pletely new vari­ant of OS X: 30%
• …it will have App Store sup­port at launch: 70%

iPhone

• The 4^th gen­er­a­tion iPhone will be announced: 70%
• …it will be avail­able for sale before July 2010: 20%
• …it will run iPhone OS 4.0: 90%
• …there will be a Verizon ver­sion: 20%
• …it will be Verizon exclu­sive: Are you fuck­ing kid­ding me?
• …it will sup­port arbi­trary back­ground appli­ca­tions: 5%

OS X Touch 4.0

• Touch OS 4.0 will be announced: 70%
• …SDK avail­able now: 80%
• …sig­nif­i­cant changes to the NDA sit­u­a­tion: 10%
• …avail­able for orig­i­nal iPhone: 5%
• …avail­able for iPhone 3G: 25%
• …avail­able for iPhone 3GS: 60%
• …avail­able only on the new iPhone: 20%
• …avail­able for first gen­er­a­tion iPod Touch: 25%
• …avail­able for sec­ond gen­er­a­tion iPod Touch: 60%

App Store/iTunes

• Approval process elim­i­nated: 10%
• Subscription music: 50%
• Subscription TV: 30%
• Subscription Movies: 10%
• Text con­tent added: 80%

Other

• MacMacs will her­ald new device as “game chang­ing”: 99.99%
• Enderle/Thurrot/ZDNet/PC World will declare announce­ments “dis­ap­point­ing”: 99.99%
• Scoble will mess him­self: 90%

There you have it kid­dos. Tune back in after the announce­ment to see how I did.