My Predictions — Unicorn Edition
The day of days is upon us, so I thought I’d do a quick run-down of the various rumors that have been bandied about. I’m also going to give my estimation on the likelihood of said prediction coming true.
Tablet
- A tablet will be announced: 90%
- …named:
- iTablet: 5%
- iSlate: 30%
- iPad: 80% (sadly)
- Something without a fucking “i” in front: 2% (sadly)
- …it will have wifi: 90%
- …it will have 3G: 75%
- …AT&T exclusive: 60%
- …including Verizon: 40%
- …Verizon exclusive: 10%
- …Steve will announce a handful of major content partners: 80%
- …it will run a variant of the “desktop” OS X: 30%
- …it will run a variant of the “iPhone” OS X: 70%
- …it will run a completely new variant of OS X: 30%
- …it will have App Store support at launch: 70%
iPhone
- The 4th generation iPhone will be announced: 70%
- …it will be available for sale before July 2010: 20%
- …it will run iPhone OS 4.0: 90%
- …there will be a Verizon version: 20%
- …it will be Verizon exclusive: Are you fucking kidding me?
- …it will support arbitrary background applications: 5%
OS X Touch 4.0
- Touch OS 4.0 will be announced: 70%
- …SDK available now: 80%
- …significant changes to the NDA situation: 10%
- …available for original iPhone: 5%
- …available for iPhone 3G: 25%
- …available for iPhone 3GS: 60%
- …available only on the new iPhone: 20%
- …available for first generation iPod Touch: 25%
- …available for second generation iPod Touch: 60%
App Store/iTunes
- Approval process eliminated: 10%
- Subscription music: 50%
- Subscription TV: 30%
- Subscription Movies: 10%
- Text content added: 80%
Other
- MacMacs will herald new device as “game changing”: 99.99%
- Enderle/Thurrot/ZDNet/PC World will declare announcements “disappointing”: 99.99%
- Scoble will mess himself: 90%
There you have it kiddos. Tune back in after the announcement to see how I did.