…And There We Have It.

January 27th, 2010, by The Angry Drunk

So, how did we do:


Tablet

  • A tablet will be announced: 90% — Duh.
  • …named:
    • iTablet: 5% — BZZT!
    • iSlate: 30% — BZZT!
    • iPad: 80% (sadly) — BING!
    • Something with­out a fuck­ing “i” in front: 2% (sadly) — BZZT!
  • …it will have wifi: 90% — Of course
  • …it will have 3G: 75% — On some models
  • …AT&T exclu­sive: 60% — HAHAHA Fuck you Verizon.
  • …includ­ing Verizon: 40% — BZZT!
  • …Verizon exclu­sive: 10% — BZZZZZT!
  • …Steve will announce a hand­ful of major con­tent part­ners: 80% — Yep. And fuck you McGraw-Hill.
  • …it will run a vari­ant of the “desk­top” OS X: 30% — Nope.
  • …it will run a vari­ant of the “iPhone” OS X: 70% — Not stated, but given the App sit­u­a­tion seems to be the case.
  • …it will run a com­pletely new vari­ant of OS X: 30% — Nope
  • …it will have App Store sup­port at launch: 70% — Yeppers

iPhone — Goose Egg on All Counts.

  • The 4th gen­er­a­tion iPhone will be announced: 70%
  • …it will be avail­able for sale before July 2010: 20%
  • …it will run iPhone OS 4.0: 90%
  • …there will be a Verizon ver­sion: 20%
  • …it will be Verizon exclu­sive: Are you fuck­ing kid­ding me?
  • …it will sup­port arbi­trary back­ground appli­ca­tions: 5%

OS X Touch 4.0 — Also Goose Egg.

  • Touch OS 4.0 will be announced: 70%
  • …SDK avail­able now: 80%
  • …sig­nif­i­cant changes to the NDA sit­u­a­tion: 10%
  • …avail­able for orig­i­nal iPhone: 5%
  • …avail­able for iPhone 3G: 25%
  • …avail­able for iPhone 3GS: 60%
  • …avail­able only on the new iPhone: 20%
  • …avail­able for first gen­er­a­tion iPod Touch: 25%
  • …avail­able for sec­ond gen­er­a­tion iPod Touch: 60%

App Store/iTunes

  • Approval process elim­i­nated: 10% — Hahaha, you fuck­ing kid­ding me?
  • Subscription music: 50% — Nope
  • Subscription TV: 30% — Nope
  • Subscription Movies: 10% — Nope
  • Text con­tent added: 80% — Nope …er, I mean Bingo!

Other

  • MacMacs will her­ald new device as “game chang­ing”: 99.99% — Wait for it.
  • Enderle/Thurrot/ZDNet/PC World will declare announce­ments “dis­ap­point­ing”: 99.99% — Tune in to the Angry Mac Bastards for updates.
  • Scoble will mess him­self: 90% — Wait for it.

All in all, the iPad is pretty much what I was expect­ing. I’ll write up my thoughts after I’ve had some time (and hooch) to mull them over.

11 comments - (Comments closed)
«  
  »
  • bkhar­mony

    Yeah, I filled out Weary’s Prediction score­card yes­ter­day. Pretty much nailed what the tablet was going to be. But I totally blew it on iPhone OS 4.0 and the car­ri­ers. I was sure we’d see some new iPhone OS changes to tie into the iPad. And OMGWTFBBQ — what kind of dirt does AT&T have on Steve?

  • http://www.theangrydrunk.com The Angry Drunk

    “what kind of dirt does AT&T have on Steve?” I think it’s more like: Other than teth­er­ing and a few metro areas, AT&T is per­fectly accept­able. And, what every­one fuck­ing for­gets is: VERIZON IS CDMA!!!

  • james­bai­ley
  • bkhar­mony

    I live in Dallas, been on AT&T with iPhone since day 1 and I’ve been defend­ing them the whole time. But as the iPhone has really taken off, I’ve noticed a change. I can barely down­load my email the last cou­ple months.

    I think we should have the same model as the iPhone in Europe: spread the load across car­ri­ers. And you’ll notice I didn’t say Verizon, because I know they’re CDMA, and I don’t expect Apple to redesign their phone for the ponces that run it (though I wouldn’t be sur­prised if there exists a skunkworks CDMA iPhone, like the secret Intel Mac all those years). Verizon will prob­a­bly never cede to Apple’s demands so I’m not hold­ing my breath. T-Mobile, OTOH…

    Dude, it’s time. AT&T can’t han­dle the iPhone, let alone the iPad, which is designed to use band­width just like a laptop.

  • bkhar­mony

    “And what’s with the huge bezel?“

    I sup­pose he’d be hap­pier if they designed it so your thumbs block the screen as you’re view­ing a film. (facepalm)

  • http://www.theangrydrunk.com The Angry Drunk

    The prob­lem with other US GSM car­ries is that there is only one. T-Mobile, and their 3G fre­quency is incom­pat­i­ble with the iPhone (the prob­lem is reversed with the Nexus 1). It’s not like I like the cur­rent sit­u­a­tion, but it’s an arti­fact of the shitty state of cell cov­er­age in this coun­try, and it isn’t going to change any time soon.

  • bkhar­mony

    Wasn’t aware T-Mobile had a dif­fer­ent fla­vor of GSM.

  • http://www.theangrydrunk.com The Angry Drunk

    T-Mo uses 1.7GHz/2.1GHz for 3G AT&T uses 1.9/.85. As far as I know, no phone does both. That said, the iPad appar­ently does .85, 1.7 and 2.1. So there is hope for the future.

  • http://twitter.com/chipotlecoyote Watts Martin

    Give your­self points on the “iTunes text con­tent added,” or at least par­tial credit: books are being sold as part of the iBooks app, through a very iTunes-like inter­face. (And I’d esti­mate a non-zero chance of a ver­sion of iBooks show­ing up for the iPhone, although I def­i­nitely wouldn’t call it a sure thing.)

  • Gatesbasher

    I’m kind of relieved. I’m not going to have to run out and buy one. But read­ing all the insane pre­dic­tions peo­ple have been mak­ing the last cou­ple of months leaves me dis­ap­pointed with the real­ity — I guess that’s what they were paid for, so: Good Job!

    I love the peo­ple accus­ing Apple of “hype.” They’ve never said word one about this device, or con­firmed its exis­tence until today. This is a def­i­n­i­tion of “hype” with which I’m not famil­iar.

    I really thought it would be an e-book reader, which to me means I can trans­fer all the HTML, PDF, and DjVu books I’ve down­loaded to my com­puter and read them on the bus. Apparently not — but I’m not sure. (I guess DjVu was a non-starter when even desk­top Safari can’t use its plu­gin to read local files, and needs a stand­alone reader.)

    What really dis­mays me is the res­o­lu­tion: I’m glad they didn’t go with the stick-of-gum 9:16, but 1024 x 768? Hell, I’d rather it was 640 x 480 — at least then you could watch SDTV at native res­o­lu­tion and 720p at half-resolution. As it is, 96% and 93.75% of the pix­els on your screen, respec­tively, will be cal­cu­lated on the fly by a mobile proces­sor. No, thanks.

    I can see who it’s aimed at, and it’ll prob­a­bly sell well, but this version’s not for me. The price is really nice, though — most peo­ple were pre­dict­ing $1,000 and up.

  • http://www.theangrydrunk.com The Angry Drunk

    Yeah, I was over-zealous in my noping.