The greater techno-sphere got their collective panties in a twist this weekend over the quasi-unveiling of the rumored Google Phone. I’m not going to link to any of the coverage, I’m lazy and you all can use a search engine just fine, but it behooves me as an opinionated cock-sucker and general bastard to throw in my two cents.
So, what do we know about this bad boy? Basically, it’s a re-branded (or should that be “unbranded”) HTC phone running the latest version of Android. Supposedly it will be offered carrier-unlocked (no word on pricepoints) and it works on T-Mobile’s variant of the GSM spectrum in the U.S. What that means, for those who don’t understand the vagaries of cellular data networks (New York Times, I’m looking at you) is that it a) won’t be running on your precious fucking Verizon, and b) will only operate at EDGE speeds on AT&T.
My take on this: “So the fuck what?”
The vast mouth-breathing majority of the blogosphere is agog with comments about how this strapping young lad of a phone will “change the industry” and other such hyperbolic twaddle. The phrase “iPhone killer” has even been bandied about. The thing is, it’s all bullshit. The cell phone landscape has already been changed, and the changer’s name was Apple. No one in their right mind (Enderle need not apply) can deny that it was the iPhone that introduced the mainstream consumer to what a properly executed smart-phone should be. But again I ask: “So the fuck what?”
The truth is that there is nothing exceptionally special about the iPhone, just as there isn’t anything particularly special about this new Google Phone. Both, along withe the Droid, the Pre and whatever the hell Blackberry is hawking these days have their strengths and weaknesses. Buy whichever one works best for you and then shut up about it.
The problem is that the bulk of the tech media doesn’t understand the previous paragraph. They are so consumed with two huge blind-spots that they have utterly missed the point. Those two blind-spots are Silicon Valley insularity and binary thinking.
A huge chunk of the tech media, and the New Media Douchebags that do their thinking for them, have their heads so far up their Sili Valley asses that they haven’t the foggiest idea what the actual cellular phone market looks like. Here’s a hint: there are vastly more people out there with “dumb” phones, or no cell phone at all, than there are smart phone users. Will that change? Most likely, but probably not in the way that the punditards think. I suspect that, much like with the rest of the consumer electronics industry, the features that we now consider to be emblematic of “smart” phones will gradually become features that are taken for granted in newer mainstream devices.
To take an example from an industry utterly unrelated to cell phones, let’s whip up a good old fashioned auto industry analogy. Specifically, let’s talk GPS. At one time only the swankiest of luxury automobiles came with an optional GPS navigation system. Now they’re being included in many base models. Does that make GPS navigation any less of a “smart” feature? No, it just shows that, over time, the average consumer tends to adopt successful technology.
Another way in which the press seems oblivious to the realities surrounding the cellular phone market is the tendency to equate the smart phone market with the personal computer market, where consumers have been conditioned to think that there is one maker of PC operating systems, with a few alternatives for hippies and nerds. Historically the cellular phone market has been much more like the rest of the consumer electronics market, with a plethora of brand choices and consumers showing precious little loyalty among the brands.
So, how does this relate to the cellular phone market? Unlike many in the blogosphere who seem to envision a weird, dystopian future where one monolithic corporation dispenses smart phones to the enlightened digerati, I see a future where many of the features that now epitomize the “smart phone” are present in a wide variety of devices offered by a number of manufacturers running a choice of operating systems. Among them I definitely see Android and the iPhone OS, with less confidence surrounding WebOS and WinMobile.
Which brings us to the second way in which I think that most pundits miss the point: binary thinking. It seems to be taken as a gospel truth that only one vendor can exist in any given market, even as the same pundits lash out at companies that choose not to participate in markets that they don’t see as profitable (you can shove your Apple Netbook up your ass).
It’s somewhat amusing to see writers shift seamlessly from screeching about “monopolies” and “anti-competitive behavior” to breathless screeds about the next “X Killer,” where X is usually the iPhone, Apple, or a game console. Again, these people are ignoring the vast population of consumer products where competing brands offer different products, and it all works famously. Has anyone ever seriously made a comment such as “The new Vizio HDTV is totally a Panasonic killer”? No, they haven’t and if they did they would be laughed at. But somehow, if a device connects to a computer then we’re living under Highlander rules.
So, back to the point, the Google Phone, or Nexus One, or whatever it’s called. Goody on Google. It’s a nice looking phone. I’m sure it will be good for Google, it will be good for Apple, and it will be good for the market as a whole.
Now shut the fuck up about it.
There can be only one…or two or ten or more depending on the market .
I think another example would be the fact that pretty much even the absolute shittiest of phones comes with a built-in camera of some kind these days.
Watching a good friend of mine fall in love with technology, after years of shitty phones he didn't like, was enlightening – he fell for a phone that wasn't my iPhone. Suddenly, his HTC Hero made me realise that my choice was absolutely the right one for me and his was right for him. I was able to break out of my stupidity bubble and embrace the possibility that there are loads of great phones out there, something I've been telling every camera bigot for years.
Actually, the camera market is another great example of what I'm talking about. No one sane talks about Nikon killers or Canon killers.
I don't quite get why everyone is wetting their pampers over how the OMGOOGLE ONE FONE is carrier unlocked. If it's on T-Mobile's US frequencies, it's more or less locked to T-Mobile in the US. It's going to be limited to EDGE speeds, and all of EDGE's short-comings, everywhere else. Does anyone else remember missing phone calls on the iPhone EDGE because it was busy downloading email? I know I do. Selling the phone without a carrier partner means no carrier subsidy, which, in turn, means it's either going to be expensive, or Google is going to sell it at a loss, assuming they'll make up the loss in ad revenue. I just don't see the point. If by some dark antenna magic it somehow worked on T-Mobile, AT&T, and Verizon, maybe that would be worth getting excited over.
“Another way in which the press seems oblivious to the realities surrounding the cellular phone market is the tendency to equate the smart phone market with the personal computer market, where consumers have been conditioned to think that there is one maker of PC operating systems, with a few alternatives for hippies and nerds.”
So true. I think it will take another decade before they'll get it.
“Among them I definitely see Android and the iPhone OS, with less confidence surrounding WebOS and WinMobile.”
No confidence in Bada and Symbian? RIMM?
“No confidence in Bada and Symbian? RIMM?”
Well, I was just giving examples. My point is that I suspect that, unlike the personal computer market that is essentially Windows, a dash of Apple and a fringe of Linux, the cellular phone market will look much more like the rest of the consumer electronics market. Numerous vendors selling devices based around multiple operating systems.
My contention is that there won't be a “Microsoft of smartphones” any more than there is a “Microsoft of televisions.”
I thought “Highlander rules” meant that everyone who was actually Scottish had to speak with a French accent, and everyone who was actually Spanish had to speak with a Scottish accent.
Egyptian, not Spanish; otherwise you are correct. Also, barbarians from the steppes of Russia need to sound like whatever the fuck Clancy Brown was aiming for.
hear hear old bean, very well put.
Beat me to it!!! https://twitter.com/simonbanyard/status/6492477959
It's quite like the Whack-a-mole game, isn't? Someone pops up and it's everyone's job to knock it back down where it came from. I think there's still a lot of resentment that Apple did exactly what it claimed to do (“simply put a great phone and garner 1% of the market”). It's done that and much more. Of course, Steve truly asks to be in the sights of so many. There is a lot (LOTS) of bragging that he does in keynotes. There is a lot (LOTS) of putodowns at the products of others. Of course, as they say in Texas, “It ain't braggin' if it's the truth!”
AngryDrunk, one thing… you said “The truth is that there is nothing exceptionally special about the iPhone” — I think you were very drunk when you said this — perhaps even high. The iPhone IS the one special phone out there. It's why every handset maker in America have copied it at least once and even seversal times over. Why the copies it isn't special? If it isn't special, why, why is there a growing movement of “brand loyalty” that you claim is very precious and there exists very little of?
I think the idea that there can be only one computing platform comes from a past time when all applications were native and cross-platform software development was harder. Now, with HTML5 you can create one Web application that runs everywhere, and we have open source Unix, open source WebKit and Gecko, and typically you can reuse about 80% of your native application's code when you port it to another platform. So the idea that we need just one computing platform is not only obsolete but it's got a strange masochistic overtone as well. All we need is one Web app platform and then everybody can run that in addition to a chosen native app platforms such as PlayStation or Mac or iPhone or other.
Nah, I was serious in saying that there is nothing special about the iPhone, which is really Apple's genius. None of the features present in the iPhone are features that didn't exist in one form or another in other “smart” phones beforehand. What makes the iPhone special is the way in which Apple integrated them and presented them in a way that non-geeks finally got. You could say that the iPod was another example of the same phenomenon.
Again that is Apple's (I refuse to give all the credit to Steve Jobs as so many are wont to do) genius. Twice in the last decade Apple tapped the consumer zeitgeist at exactly the right moment to catapult a gadget that had previously been nerds-only into something that every chump on the street had to have.
But, at the end of the day, I really don't think that there is anything intrinsic to the iPhone that makes is objectively a better phone than a Droid, or a Pre, or a Nexus One. Certainly there are features that make it subjectively a better choice for a metric fuck-ton of people, myself included. But there's people who can say that about the Droid, et al.
All true, but as I attempted to point out before, completely irrelevant to the consumer electronics market as a whole.
Amen to that.
If by some dark antenna magic it somehow worked on T-Mobile, AT&T, and Verizon, maybe that would be worth getting excited over.
there's plenty of phones with dual GSM/CDMA technology available here in India for a little over what would be approx 400USD. there are even more phones with a dual GSM technology that are able to tune into all frequencies and have both numbers activated at the same time, for about 300-400USD. it's not magic, it's probably a combo of FCC rules and carrier fear that prevents these from coming state-side.
…with HTML5 and WebKit as the common platform.
Well, most of consumer electronics revolve around “consuming” media or generally content, and those are of course standardized across all manufacturers, so I think it's relevant.
…with HTML5 and WebKit as the common platform.
Well, most of consumer electronics revolve around “consuming” media or generally content, and those are of course standardized across all manufacturers, so I think it’s relevant.
The amazing thing is that in one year, Google has managed to become Microsoft and Apple both. Microsoft, because they have a big chunk of your computing experience by the balls, and every startup either plans to sell out to Google or lives in fear of Google deciding to enter their market (see also GPS makers). And Apple, because even the mainstream press is starting to pounce on Google's every new announcement as if it's made out of diamond breasts – whether it's good (the Nexus One, if it really does have T-Mob and AT&T 3G bands, intrigues me) or not (does anybody know WTF Google Wave is good for yet?) there are still breathless announcements on the Today Show.
The amazing thing is that in one year, Google has managed to become Microsoft and Apple both. Microsoft, because they have a big chunk of your computing experience by the balls, and every startup either plans to sell out to Google or lives in fear of Google deciding to enter their market (see also GPS makers). And Apple, because even the mainstream press is starting to pounce on Google’s every new announcement as if it’s made out of diamond breasts – whether it’s good (the Nexus One, if it really does have T-Mob and AT&T 3G bands, intrigues me) or not (does anybody know WTF Google Wave is good for yet?) there are still breathless announcements on the Today Show.
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